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Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession

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  • GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A.
  • JINNAI, Ryo

Abstract

We study the causes behind the shift in the U.S. economy's trend following the Great Recession. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous productivity á la Romer and a financial friction á la Kiyotaki-Moore. Adverse financial disturbances during the recession and the lack of strong tailwinds post crisis resulted in a severe contraction and the downward shift in the economy's trend. Had financial conditions remained stable during the crisis, the economy would have grown at its average growth rate. From a historical perspective, the Great Recession was unique because of the size and persistence of adverse shocks, and the lackluster performance of favorable shocks since 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2256-2303, August.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
    3. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    4. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, "undated". "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," Working Papers e66, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    5. Sînâ T. Ateş & Felipe E. Saffie, 2014. "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-043, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2013. "Identifying long-run risks: a bayesian mixed-frequency approach," Working Papers 13-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    8. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2010. "Redistributive shocks and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 931-948, November.
    9. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1997. "Endogenous Growth Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011662.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Pfeiffer, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," 2017 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2018. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    3. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Marco, Ratto, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," Working Papers 2017-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    4. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2017. "R&D Growth and Business Cycles Measured with an Endogenous Growth DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 85525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:kap:jeczfn:v:123:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00712-017-0562-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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