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Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús

Abstract

We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in the volatility of macroeconomic time series. Second, we enumerate the mechanisms that researchers have postulated to link uncertainty shocks and business cycles. Third, we outline how we can specify uncertainty shocks. Fourth, we postulate a real business cycle model augmented with financial frictions and uncertainty shocks. Fifth, we use the model to illustrate our previous discussions and to show how uncertainty shocks can be expansionary.

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 14398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14398
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    3. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Abdel Kader Touré, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Measure and Impacts on the Canadian Economy," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-47, CIRANO.
    4. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 13438, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Thomas Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The twenty-fifth anniversary of "Frontiers of business cycle research"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 1-7, August.
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    Keywords

    business cycles; Financial Frictions; Uncertainty shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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