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Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility

  • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, NBER, CEPR, and FEDEA)

  • Pablo Guerrón-Quintana

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez

    ()

    (Duke University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and FEDEA)

We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the properties of the solution to this class of models. Second, we take advantage of the results about the structure of the solution to build a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to evaluate the likelihood function of the model. The approach, which exploits the profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally tractable even in large-scale models, such as those often employed by policy-making institutions. As an application, we use our algorithm and Bayesian methods to estimate a business cycle model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in monetary policy. Our application shows the importance of stochastic volatility in accounting for the dynamics of the data.

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File URL: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/13-036.pdf
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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 13-036.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 08 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:13-036
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  1. Neil Shephard & Torben G. Andersen, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility: Origins and Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 389, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Neil Shephard & Thomas Flury, 2008. "Bayesian inference based only on simulated likelihood: particle filter analysis of dynamic economic models," Economics Series Working Papers 413, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  4. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2003. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000264, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Roger E.A. Farmer & Tao Zha & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2009. "Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 14710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
  10. Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  12. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  13. Osnat Stramer & Matthew Bognar & Paul Schneider, 2010. "Bayesian Inference for Discretely Sampled Markov Processes with Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 450-480, Fall.
  14. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  15. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
  16. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Great moderations and U.S. interest rates: unconditional evidence," Working Paper 2008-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  17. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  19. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
  20. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  21. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  22. Ai[diaeresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 413-452, February.
  23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Daniel McFadden, 1987. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration," Working papers 464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  25. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
  26. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  27. Stacey L. Schreft, 1990. "Credit controls: 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 25-55.
  28. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
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