Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
- Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-21, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
References listed on IDEAS
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005.
"Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
- Andrew P Blake & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents," Bank of England working papers 298, Bank of England.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010.
"Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 608-617, March.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008.
"The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Northwestern University, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 219, Society for Computational Economics.
- Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007.
"Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
- Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to solve Lubik-Schorfheide JME 2007 DSGE model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00111, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Frank Schorfheide, 2005.
"Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
- Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Learning and monetary policy shifts," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008.
"The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, March.
- Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2005. "The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?," Economics Working Papers 921, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of US Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011.
"Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-switching Rational Expectations Models," Emory Economics 1003, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2009.
"Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 3, pages 077-114
Central Bank of Chile.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 13892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 484, Central Bank of Chile.
- Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
- John Geweke, 1999.
"Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
- John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2006.
"Bayesian and adaptive optimal policy under model uncertainty,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2007/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," 2007 Meeting Papers 446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005.
"Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
- Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
Proceedings,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Francesco Bianchi, 2013.
"Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
- Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Regime switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," MPRA Paper 24251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2010.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 10-39, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 12-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2009. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007.
"Generalizing the Taylor Principle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Troy A. Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor principle," Research Working Paper RWP 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010.
"Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007.
"Normalization in Econometrics,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
- James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983.
"On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Surico, Paolo & Benati, Luca, 2007. "Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability," Working Paper Series 824, European Central Bank.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006.
"Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009.
"Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
- Roger E.A. Farmer & Tao Zha & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2009. "Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 14710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994.
"Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
- Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Edward Nelson, 2004.
"The U.K.’s rocky road to stability,"
Monetary Trends,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct.
- Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2005. "The U.K.'s rocky road to stability," Working Papers 2005-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sims, Christopher A, 2002.
"Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models,"
Computational Economics,
Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
- Christopher Sims, 2001. "Matlab Code for Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," QM&RBC Codes 11, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
- Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017.
"How optimal is US monetary policy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
- Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell & Chen, Xiaoshan, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017.
"Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks,"
Working Paper Series
2082, European Central Bank.
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013.
"Fiscal regimes in the EU,"
Working Paper Series
1529, European Central Bank.
- António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics ces13.06, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Mustafa Caglayan & Zainab Jehan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy: Evidence from Canada and the Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-293, July.
- LI, XI HAO & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Stock-Flow Dynamic Projection," MPRA Paper 62047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
- Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.
More about this item
Keywords
DSGE models; Markov-switching; Bayesian analysis;JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2011-04-09 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-09 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2011_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tedi Racheva). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dpglauk.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.