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Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

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  • Xiaoshan Chen
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

This paper conducts a systematic investigation of parameter instability in a small open economy DSGE model of the UK economy over the past thirty-five years. Using Bayesian analysis, we find a number of Markov-switching versions of the model provide a better fit for the UK data than a model with time-invariant parameters. The Markov-switching DSGE model that has two independent Markov-chains - one governing the shifts in UK monetary policy and nominal price rigidity and one governing the standard deviations of shocks - is selected as the best fitting model. The preferred model is then used to evaluate and design monetary policy. For the latter, we use the Markov-Jump-Linear-Quadratic (MJLQ) model, as it incorporates abrupt changes in structural parameters into derivations of the optimal and arbitrary policy rules. It also reveals the entire forecasting distribution of the targeted variables. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that attempts to evaluate and design UK monetary policy based on an estimated open economy Markov-switching DSGE model.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2011_04.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2011_04
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Keywords: DSGE models; Markov-switching; Bayesian analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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Cited by:

  1. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  3. Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
  5. António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics ces13.06, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.
  7. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
  8. LI, XI HAO & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Stock-Flow Dynamic Projection," MPRA Paper 62047, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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