IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2015i139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters

Author

Listed:
  • Andrej Drygalla

Abstract

This paper analyzes changes in the monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland following the policy shift from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting around the turn of the millennium. Applying a Markovswitching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, switches in the policy parameters and the volatilities of shocks hitting the economies are estimated and quantified. Results indicate the presence of regimes of weak and strong responses of the central banks to exchange rate movements as well as periods of high and low volatility. Whereas all three economies switched to a less volatile regime over time, findings on changes in the policy parameters reveal a lower reaction to exchange rate movements in the Czech Republic and Poland, but an increased attention to it in Hungary. Simulations for the Czech Republic and Poland also suggest their respective central banks, rather than a sound macroeconomic environment, being accountable for reducing volatility in variables like inflation and output. In Hungary, their favorable developments can be attributed to a larger extent to the reduction in the size of external disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_139_Drygalla.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    2. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79.
    4. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
    5. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.
    6. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    7. Junior Maih, 2014. "Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers No 10/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
    5. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    6. Binning, Andrew & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2019. "Is monetary policy always effective? Incomplete interest rate pass-through in a DSGE model," Working Paper 2019/22, Norges Bank.
    7. Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 016970, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    8. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    9. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    10. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma point filters for dynamic nonlinear regime switching models," Working Paper 2015/10, Norges Bank.
    11. Anette Borge & Gunnar Bårdsen & Junior Maih, 2019. "Expectations switching in a DSGE model for the UK," Working Paper Series 18119, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    12. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    13. Ji, Yangyang & Xiao, Wei, 2016. "Government spending multipliers and the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-100.
    14. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
    15. Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños & Sebastián Cadavid-Sánchez & Gerardo Kattan-Rodríguez, 2018. "Targeting Long-term Rates in a Model with Financial Frictions and Regime Switching," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 159-219, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    16. Ali Malik, 2010. "The importance of output for the monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 917-923.
    17. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    18. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    20. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Is the response of the bank of England to exchange rate movements frequency-dependent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching DSGE models; inflation targeting; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.