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Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Ragna Alstadheim

    () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    () (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Junior Maih

    () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their analysis is based on a sample with multiple regime changes, which may bias the results. We revisit their original question using a Markov switching set up which explicitly allows for parameter changes. Fitting the data from four small open economies to the model, we find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant during the sample period (1982-2011). In particular, central banks in Sweden and the UK switched from a high response to the exchange rate in the 1980s and early 1990s, to a low response some time after inflation targeting was implemented. Canada also observed a regime change, but the decline in the exchange rate response was small relative to the increase in the response to inflation and output. Norway, on the other hand, did not observe a shift in the policy response over time, as the central bank has stayed in a regime of high exchange rate response prior and post implementing inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2013_24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    2. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina, 2012. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    3. Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    5. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    6. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    7. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    8. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
    10. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ji, Yangyang & Xiao, Wei, 2016. "Government spending multipliers and the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-100.
    2. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Forecast uncertainty in the neighborhood of the effective lower bound: How much asymmetry should we expect?," Working Paper 2016/13, Norges Bank.
    3. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    4. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    5. Pawel Baranowski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    6. Ragna Alstadheim, 2013. "How New Keynesian is the US Phillips curve?," Working Paper 2013/25, Norges Bank.
    7. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1157-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.
    9. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management," Working Papers No 5/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August.
    11. Mete Han Yagmur, 2016. "Monetary Policy Response to Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1392-1399.
    12. Julien Champagne & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 17-39, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Markov switching; Small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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