IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/016970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez

    ()

Abstract

This paper analyzes the Colombian economic context between 1990Q1-2014Q4, using a Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (MS-DSGE) to identify regime switches in the driven mechanisms of the economy. Bayesian methods are applied, allowing for changes in the monetary policy rule, nominal rigidities, and shock volatilities of the model. The results support evidence of shifts in the structural parameters of several equations that define the dynamics of the economy. The best fit specification of the MSDSGE model allows for independent switches in the Taylor rule, parameters, coefficients of the domestic Phillips curve, and changes in volatilities. Estimations from the DSGE model suggest a regime switching in monetary policy from a low to high inflation response, which coincides with the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999Q3, and with a lower Phillips curve slope in the Economy since 1998Q3. Historical decomposition analysis and counterfactual exercises show that regime switches were crucial when the Central Bank adopted an Inflation Targeting regime, and, by themselves, these regime changes could be interpreted as disinflationary shocks. These phenomena are not identifiable when using linear models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 016970, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:016970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2018-60.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    2. Andrés Giraldo & Martha Misas & Edgar Villa, 2012. "Reconstructing Colombia’s Recent History of Monetary Policy from 1990 to 2010," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 30(67), pages 56-103, July.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
    5. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Urrutia, Miguel & Hofstetter, Marc & Hamann, Franz, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    8. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    9. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    11. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
    12. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    13. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
    14. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    15. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    16. Junior Maih, 2014. "Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers No 10/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    18. Favero, Carlo A & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2003. " Macroeconomic Stability and the Preferences of the Fed: A Formal Analysis, 1961-98," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 545-556, August.
    19. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, July.
    20. César Pabón & Juan Guillermo Bedoya, 2014. "Regla de Taylor en Colombia: ¿Variante a través del tiempo?," Documentos CEDE 014373, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    21. Miguel Urrutia & Franz Hamann & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-487, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    22. Woodford, Michael & WALSH, CARL E., 2005. "Interest And Prices: Foundations Of A Theory Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 462-468, June.
    23. Foerster, Andrew T. & Choi, Jason, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy regime switches," Research Working Paper RWP 16-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    24. Edgar Villa & Martha A. Misas & Andrés F. Giraldo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and an Optimal Taylor Rule for an Open Economy: Evidence for Colombia 1990-2011," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 41-83, May.
    25. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Juan Carlos Parra A., 2013. "La formación de precios en las empresas colombianas: evidencia a partir de una encuesta directa," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 273-348 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    26. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE, May.
    27. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
    28. Bernal Raquel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE, March.
    29. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, June.
    30. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    31. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    32. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, December.
    33. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    34. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    35. Marc Hofstetter & Franz Hamann & Miguel Urrutia, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002–12," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 1-37, June.
    36. Fabio Sánchez & Andrés Fernández & Armando Armenta, 2005. "Historia Monetaria De Colombia En El Siglo Xx: Grandes Tendencias Y Episodios Relevantes," Documentos CEDE 002792, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    37. repec:cml:incocp:3-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 211-230, February.
    39. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; inflation; Markow-switching DSGE; Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000089:016970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Universidad De Los Andes-Cede). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.