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Inflation targeting in Latin America

Listed author(s):
  • Adolfo Barajas

    ()

  • Roberto Steiner

    ()

  • Leonardo Villar

    ()

  • César Pabón

    ()

Examinamos cómo se ha llevado a cabo la política monetaria en los cuatro primeros países en adoptar inflación objetiva: Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Perú. En primer lugar, un enfoque de Markov Switching muestra que si bien los cuatro países presentan una gran estabilidad en sus respuestas a las brechas de inflación y producto, la mayoría han salido de esta regla en tiempos de crisis extrema. También encontramos evidencia de un enfoque de IO "extendida" o "integrado" en dos países, la tasa de política en respuesta a un tipo de cambio real o una brecha de crédito privado, este último posiblemente indicando problemas de estabilidad financiera. No encontramos evidencia de cambios en la credibilidad a través del tiempo. En segundo lugar, la intervención de la divisa es impulsada principalmente por desajustes de los tipos de cambio, en lugar de por la volatilidad del tipo de cambio o por un objetivo de reservas internacionales. Tal intervención generalmente responde con más fuerza a las apreciaciones que las depreciaciones, y no responde a la inflación. Por lo tanto, la IO en estos países hasta el momento se puede caracterizar como flexibles, coexistiendo con un grado de temor a la flotación y un objetivo de estabilidad financiera, ya sea integrado directamente en la regla política o complementarse con medidas macroprudenciales.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/237
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Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 011550.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 30 Jan 2014
Handle: RePEc:col:000123:011550
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