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Inflation targeting in Latin America

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  • Adolfo Barajas

    ()

  • Roberto Steiner

    ()

  • Leonardo Villar

    ()

  • César Pabón

    ()

Abstract

Examinamos cómo se ha llevado a cabo la política monetaria en los cuatro primeros países en adoptar inflación objetiva: Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Perú. En primer lugar, un enfoque de Markov Switching muestra que si bien los cuatro países presentan una gran estabilidad en sus respuestas a las brechas de inflación y producto, la mayoría han salido de esta regla en tiempos de crisis extrema. También encontramos evidencia de un enfoque de IO "extendida" o "integrado" en dos países, la tasa de política en respuesta a un tipo de cambio real o una brecha de crédito privado, este último posiblemente indicando problemas de estabilidad financiera. No encontramos evidencia de cambios en la credibilidad a través del tiempo. En segundo lugar, la intervención de la divisa es impulsada principalmente por desajustes de los tipos de cambio, en lugar de por la volatilidad del tipo de cambio o por un objetivo de reservas internacionales. Tal intervención generalmente responde con más fuerza a las apreciaciones que las depreciaciones, y no responde a la inflación. Por lo tanto, la IO en estos países hasta el momento se puede caracterizar como flexibles, coexistiendo con un grado de temor a la flotación y un objetivo de estabilidad financiera, ya sea integrado directamente en la regla política o complementarse con medidas macroprudenciales.

Suggested Citation

  • Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & César Pabón, 2014. "Inflation targeting in Latin America," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 011550, FEDESARROLLO.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000123:011550
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, octubre-d.
    2. Christian Rohe & Matthias Hartermann, 2015. "The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," CQE Working Papers 4215, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Leonardo Villar & José Vicente Romero & César Pabón, 2015. "Política cambiaria, monetaria y fiscal: ¿ha aprendido Colombia a mitigar los efectos de las crisis?," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 013616, FEDESARROLLO.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Markov Switching; Taylor rules; intervention in foreign exchange markets.Inflación objetivo; Markov switching; regla de Taylor; intervención en mercados de cambio extranjeros.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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