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Do good institutions promote counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies?

  • César Calderón
  • Roberto Duncan
  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

The literature has argued that developing countries are unable to adopt counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavorable politicaleconomy conditions. Using a world sample of 115 industrial and developing countries for 1984-2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countries' ability to implement counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. The results show that countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt counter- (pro-) cyclical macroeconomic policies, reflected in extended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold level of institutional quality at which monetary and fiscal policies are a-cyclical is found to be similar.

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File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2012/0118.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 118.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:118
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  1. Satyajit Chatterjee, 1999. "Real business cycles: a legacy of countercyclical policies?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 17-27.
  2. Ernesto H. Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1998. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6435, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," NBER Working Papers 11600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Rent-seeking distortions and fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 30-46, September.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2007. "Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 665-689, December.
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Huang, Haizhou & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Monetary policies for developing countries: The role of institutional quality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 239-252, September.
  11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  12. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy; Shocks, Rules, and Institutions: A View From Mars," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  14. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 163, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  16. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  17. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
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