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Macroeconomic Regimes, Policies, and Outcomes in the World

  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

This paper summarizes a research project focused on the empirical determinants of and interrelations between macroeconomic regimes, policies, and performance in the world. The project's hypotheses are structured into three related themes. The first aim is analyzing the determinants of the likelihood of adoption of macroeconomic policy regimes. The second project theme focuses on cyclicality of macroeconomic policies and accuracy in attaining inflation targets. Finally, the project tests for the behavior of two key macroeconomic variables - economic growth and inflation – focusing on their sensitivity to different macroeconomic regimes and policies. A large world database was assembled for this project from both publicly available and private databases. Data coverage extends to more than 100 countries, with annual time series extending from 1970 to 2008. A wide spectrum of frontier estimation techniques is applied to the country panel data series, appropriate for discrete-choice and continuous variable estimation. The key research results are the following. Country choice of macroeconomic policy regimes (exchange-rate regimes, money-based targeting, inflation targeting, and rule-based fiscal regimes) is explained by countries’ structural and institutional features, macroeconomic performance, financial development, and international integration. The cyclical behavior of fiscal policy reflects the quality of country institutions, financial openness, and financial development. Central bank accuracy in meeting inflation targets is also a result of domestic institutional strength and macroeconomic credibility. Long-term growth is significantly shaped by the quality of policies, financial development, foreign aid, and exchange-rate misalignment, in addition to standard growth determinants. Growth volatility is a result of domestic macroeconomic policy volatility, external shocks, international integration, and financial development. Country inflation rates are determined by international factors and domestic determinants, including fiscal policy, institutional development, monetary and exchangerate regimes, and financial depth and integration.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 386.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:386
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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel., 2009. "Inflation Targeting Twenty Years on: Where, When, Why, With what Effects, What lies ahead?," Documentos de Trabajo 360, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  3. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "External Conditions and Growth Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 292, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 491, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000465, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
  9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2002. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers veintiuno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  10. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
  11. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December.
  12. Alina Carare & Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/9, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  14. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. César Calderón & Norman V. Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "Does Openness Imply Greater Vulnerability?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 485, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Calderon, Cesar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2003. "Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 895-923, December.
  19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  20. Emilija Beker, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(3), pages 313-334, September.
  21. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel., 2010. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies in the Global Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 372, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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