IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico

  • Luiz de Mello
  • Diego Moccero

In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries. Politique monétaire et stabilité macroéconomique en Amérique latine : Brésil, Chili, Colombie et Mexique De nouveaux régimes monétaires ont été adoptés par le Brésil, le Chili, la Colombie et le Mexique en 1999. Basés sur le ciblage de l’inflation et des taux de change flottants, ces régimes ont été accompagnés d’une réduction de la volatilité de la politique monétaire au Brésil, en Colombie et au Mexique, en dépit de l’augmentation de la volatilité de l’inflation au Brésil et en Colombie. Ce document estime un modèle conventionnel du type « New Keynesian » pour ces quatre pays et démontre que: i) les autorités monétaires ont réagi plus fortement aux changements des expectatives d’inflation à partir de 1999 au Brésil et au Chili, tandis que la politique monétaire est devenue moins contre-cyclique en Colombie et au Mexique, ii) la réduction de la volatilité du taux d’intérêt à partir de 1999 est due à un environnement économique plus favorable plutôt qu’à l’adoption d’un nouveau régime monétaire, et iii) le changement du régime monétaire n’a pas encore conduit à une réduction de la volatilité de l’activité en ces pays.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/285851107845
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/285851107845 [303 See Other]--> http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/monetary-policy-and-macroeconomic-stability-in-latin-america_285851107845). If this is indeed the case, please notify ()


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 545.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:545-en
Contact details of provider: Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Web page: http://www.oecd.orgEmail:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  2. Gary Anderson, 2008. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models: A Horse Race," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 95-113, March.
  3. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
  4. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 15-42.
  6. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  7. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  9. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  10. Agustin Carstens & Luis I. Jacome H., 2005. "Latin American Central Bank Reform: Progress and Challenges," Macroeconomics 0509022, EconWPA.
  11. Pagan, A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0704, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers Series 77, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  16. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
  17. Vittorio Corbo & Óscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 5, pages 221-270 Central Bank of Chile.
  18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C’s, (and D’s) for understanding VARs," Working Paper 2005-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  20. Leonardo Leiderman & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/157, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2002. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modelling Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  22. MINELLA André & DE FREITAS Paulo Springer & GOLDFAJN Ilan & KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo, . "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," EcoMod2003 330700103, EcoMod.
  23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2685, The World Bank.
  25. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(4), pages 359-388, December.
  26. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  27. Stephen Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Has the inflation process changed?," BIS Working Papers 185, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Working Paper Series WP99-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  29. Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1671-1690, December.
  30. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  31. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Joe Lange & Brian Sack & William Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:545-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.