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Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets

Author

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  • Joe Lange
  • Brian P. Sack
  • William C. Whitesell

Abstract

In recent years, financial markets appear better able to anticipate FOMC policy changes. Beginning in the late 1980s and early 1990s, longer-term interest rates and futures rates have tended to incorporate movements in the federal funds rate several months in advance, in contrast to the largely contemporaneous response typically observed before that time. After identifying these emerging trends, the paper parses the enhanced predictability into a component that can be attributed to the autoregressive behavior of the funds rate and a non-autoregressive component. The paper considers institutional developments in FOMC policy making that may have contributed to each of these components, including gradualism in adjusting the federal funds rate target and transparency regarding the setting of the target and future policy intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
    2. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    5. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    6. Richard Austin & Jeff Moore, 2002. "The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 87(Q2), pages 45-61.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
    8. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249-265.
    9. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gordon H. Sellon, 2002. "The changing U.S. financial system : some implications for the monetary transmission mechanism," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q I), pages 5-35.
    11. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    12. Shu Wu, 2008. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 398-408, July.
    13. Syed M. Harun & M. Kabir Hassan & Tarek S. Zaher, 2005. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(1-2), pages 99-128, March-Jun.
    14. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December.
    15. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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    Keywords

    Financial markets; Monetary policy; Federal funds rate;
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