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The term structure of commercial paper rates

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  • Downing, Chris
  • Oliner, Stephen

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the market for commercial paper. Our main dataset, which is new to the literature, consists of daily indexes constructed from the actual market yields for nearly all commercial paper issued by U.S. corporations between January 1998 and August 2003. We show that the term premia built into commercial paper yields rise dramatically at year-end, causing the expectations hypothesis to be rejected. However, once we control for these predictable year-end effects, we find the reverse--that commercial paper yields largely conform with the expectations hypothesis.
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Suggested Citation

  • Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:83:y:2007:i:1:p:59-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Covitz, Daniel & Liang, Nellie & Suarez, Gustavo, 2009. "The anatomy of a financial crisis: the evolution of panic-driven runs in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan, pages 1-36.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    3. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Term Structure of Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-618, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Kuriyama Nina, 2016. "Testing cointegration in quantile regressions with an application to the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 107-121, April.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Shinsuke Ohyama & Ken Taniguchi, 2009. "Identifying the Effect of Bank of Japan's Liquidity Provision on the Year-End Premium: A Structural Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 09-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    6. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
    7. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
    8. Daniel M. Covitz & J. Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2009. "The evolution of a financial crisis: panic in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    10. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.

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