Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates
Longstaff [Longstaff, F., 2000. The term structure of very short-term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. Journal of Financial Economics 58, 397-415] finds support for the expectations hypothesis at the very short end of the repurchase agreement (repo) term structure while other studies find calendar-time-based regularities cause rejection of the expectations hypothesis. Using Longstaff's methods on a sample of repo rates that pre-dates Longstaff's sample, we reject the expectations hypothesis for every maturity. The pre-Longstaff-sample repo data comes from a time period where the behavior of short-term interest rates is similar to the long-run average behavior of short-term interest rates. Our results imply that expectations hold when rates are less volatile and/or that we may be entering a period of lower volatility.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
- Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003.
"Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects,"
Finance Working Papers
02-19, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Multivariate term structure models with level and heteroskedasticity effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1037-1057, May.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997.
"On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Cyree, Ken B & Winters, Drew B, 2001. "Analysis of Federal Funds Rate Changes and Variance Patterns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 403-18, Fall.
- Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 1997. "The Effect of Federal Reserve Accounting Rules on the Equilibrium Level of Overnight Repo Rates," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 815-832.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
- Mark Griffiths & Drew Winters, 1997. "On a Preferred Habitat for Liquidity at the Turn-of-the-Year: Evidence from the Term-Repo Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 21-38, August.
- Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007.
"The term structure of commercial paper rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
- Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:600-613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.