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Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

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The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the y’th power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GARCH process (heteroskedasticity effects). The conditional long rate variance exhibits heteroskedasticity effects and level effects in accordance with the square-root model. The conditional spread variance exhibits heteroskedasticity effects but no level effects. The level-GARCH model is preferred above the GARCH model and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects.

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects," Finance Working Papers 02-19, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2002_019
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, "undated". "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0206, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2015. "Predicting Interest Rate Volatility Using Information on the Yield Curve," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 347-386, September.
    3. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2015. "Predicting Interest Rate Volatility: Using Information on the Yield Curve," Working Paper Series G-1-9, Center for Financial Research, Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 423-442, March.
    5. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2008. "Level-ARCH short rate models with regime switching: Bivariate modeling of US and European short rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 925-948, December.
    6. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2012. "Predicting Interest Rate Volatility: Using Information on the Yield Curve," Working Paper Series G-1-3, Center for Financial Research, Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
    8. de Goeij, Peter & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Stock and bond market interactions with level and asymmetry dynamics: An out-of-sample application," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 318-329, March.
    9. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    10. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.
    11. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2006. "A comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1269-1290, April.
    12. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2009. "Short-term spot rate models with nonparametric deterministic drift," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 731-747, August.
    13. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2009. "Stock and bond market interactions with level and asymmetry dynamics : An out-of-sample application," Other publications TiSEM fa1d33b9-7e68-4e15-b211-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

    Heteroskedasticity effects; Level effects; Multivariate level-GARCH model; Two-factor term structure model;

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