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Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility

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  • Engle, Robert F
  • Ng, Victor K

Abstract

This paper defines the news impact curve that measures how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. Various new and existing ARCH models, including a partially nonparametric one, are compared and estimated with daily Japanese stock return data. New diagnostic tests are presented that emphasize the asymmetry of the volatility response to news. The authors' results suggest that the model by L. Glosten, R. Jagannathan, and D. Runkle (1989) is the best parametric model. The EGARCH also can capture most of the asymmetry; however, there is evidence that the variability of the conditional variance implied by the EGARCH is too high. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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  • Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:5:p:1749-78
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    1. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    3. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199.
    4. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    5. repec:crs:wpaper:9009 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Higgins, Matthew L & Bera, Anil K, 1992. "A Class of Nonlinear ARCH Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 137-158, February.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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