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Volatility And Var Forecasting For The Ibex-35 Stock-Return Index Using Figarch-Type Processes And Different Evaluation Criteria

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  • Trino-Manuel Ñíguez

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

In this paper I analyze the relative performance of Gaussian and Student-t GARCH and FIGARCH type models for volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasting of daily stock-returns using data from the Spanish equity index IBEX-35. The in-sample analysis shows that the Student-t FIAPARCH process provides a better fit than the nested models. Regarding the out-of-sample volatility forecasting, both the Gaussian- and the t-FIAPARCH processes show the best performance, although it is not possible to discriminate between them. As for the models' capacity for VaR forecasting, different results are obtained according to the evaluation criteria considered, although if the aim is regulatory VaR it is shown that the Student-t FIAPARCH model would be clearly the most recommendable.

Suggested Citation

  • Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Volatility And Var Forecasting For The Ibex-35 Stock-Return Index Using Figarch-Type Processes And Different Evaluation Criteria," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-33, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2003-33
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    APARCH; Fractional Integration; Leverage Effect; Long Memory; Value-at-risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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