Forecasting The Conditional Covariance Matrix Of A Portfolio Under Long-Run Temporal Dependence
Long-range persistence in volatility is widely modelled and forecasted in terms of the so-called fractional integrated models. These models are mostly applied in the univariate framework, since the extension to the multivariate context of assets portfolios, while relevant, is not straightforward. We discuss and apply a procedure which is able to forecast the multivariate volatility of a portfolio including assets with long-memory. The main advantage of this model is that it is feasible enough to be applied on large-scale portfolios, solving the problem of dealing with extremely complex likelihood functions which typically arises in this context. An application of this procedure to a portfolio of five daily exchange rate series shows that the out-of-sample forecasts for the multivariate volatility are improved under several loss-functions when the long-range dependence property of the portfolio assets is explicitly accounted for.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published by Ivie|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +34 96 319 00 50
Fax: +34 96 319 00 55
Web page: http://www.ivie.es/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davidson, James, 2004. "Moment and Memory Properties of Linear Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models, and a New Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 16-29, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990.
"Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Evaluating the predictive accuracy of volatility models,"
9524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
- Michel Beine & Sebastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2002.
"Accounting for conditional leptokurtosis and closing days effects in FIGARCH models of daily exchange rates,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 589-600.
- Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Accounting for conditional leptokurtosis and closing days effects in FIGARCH models of daily exchange rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10443, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
- Vilasuso, Jon, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 59-64, June.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998.
"Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
98-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998. "Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 109-118.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996.
"Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Bollerslev-Mikkelson(1996) FIEGARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00173, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2001.
"Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection,"
Economics Working Papers
586, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Brooks, Chris, 2001. "A Double-Threshold GARCH Model for the French Franc/Deutschmark Exchange Rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 135-43, March.
- Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2003-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.