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Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance

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  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Golosnoy, Vasyl

Abstract

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to forecast correlations exploiting both estimated realized correlation matrices and exogenous factors. The Fisher-z transformation guarantees robustness of correlation estimators under elliptically constrained departures from normality. For the purpose of performance comparison we contrast our methodology with prominent parametric and nonparametric alternatives to correlation modeling. Based on economic performance criteria, we distinguish dynamic factor models as having the highest predictive content.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007-23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5903
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Rubia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2006. "Forecasting the conditional covariance matrix of a portfolio under long-run temporal dependence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 439-458.
    2. Vasyl Golosnoy & Helmut Herwartz, 2012. "Dynamic Modeling Of High-Dimensional Correlation Matrices In Finance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(05), pages 1-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Correlation forecasting; Epps effect; Fourier method; Dynamic panel model; Dynamic factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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