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The role of realized ex-post covariance measures and dynamic model choice on the quality of covariance forecasts

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  • Varneskov, Rasmus
  • Voev, Valeri

Abstract

Recently, consistent measures of the ex-post covariation of financial assets based on noisy high-frequency data have been proposed. A related strand of literature focuses on dynamic models and covariance forecasting for high-frequency data based covariance measures. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether more sophisticated estimation approaches lead to more precise covariance forecasts, both in a statistical precision sense and in terms of economic value. A further issue, we address, is the relative importance of the quality of the realized measure as an input in a given forecasting model vs. the model's dynamic specification. The main finding is that the largest gains result from switching from daily to high-frequency data. Further gains are achieved if a simple sparse sampling covariance measure is replaced with a more efficient and noise-robust estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Varneskov, Rasmus & Voev, Valeri, 2013. "The role of realized ex-post covariance measures and dynamic model choice on the quality of covariance forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 83-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:20:y:2013:i:c:p:83-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.11.002
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    2. Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov, 2011. "Flat-Top Realized Kernel Estimation of Quadratic Covariation with Non-Synchronous and Noisy Asset Prices," CREATES Research Papers 2011-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling Latin-American stock and Forex markets volatility: Empirical application of a model with random level shifts and genuine long memory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 393-420.
    4. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikita Kobotaev, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting realized covariance matrices with accounting for leverage," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 114-139, February.
    5. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Varneskov, Rasmus Tangsgaard, 2017. "Medium band least squares estimation of fractional cointegration in the presence of low-frequency contamination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 218-244.
    6. Li, Yifan & Nolte, Ingmar & Vasios, Michalis & Voev, Valeri & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Weighted Least Squares Realized Covariation Estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Abderrazak Ben Maatoug & Rim Lamouchi & Russell Davidson & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2018. "Modelling Foreign Exchange Realized Volatility Using High Frequency Data: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Rasmus T. Varneskov & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Combining long memory and level shifts in modelling and forecasting the volatility of asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 371-393, March.
    9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    10. Bent Jesper Christensen & Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov, 2021. "Dynamic Global Currency Hedging [Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope]," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 19(1), pages 97-127.
    11. Ubukata, Masato & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2015. "Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using multivariate realized volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-171.
    12. Ubukata, Masato, 2018. "Dynamic hedging performance and downside risk: Evidence from Nikkei index futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 270-281.
    13. Chao Zhang & Xingyue Pu & Mihai Cucuringu & Xiaowen Dong, 2023. "Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility with Spillover Effects," Papers 2308.01419, arXiv.org.
    14. Qu, Hui & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Asymmetric multivariate HAR models for realized covariance matrix: A study based on volatility timing strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2015. "The economic value of flexible dynamic correlation models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 774-782.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast evaluation; Volatility forecasting; Portfolio optimization; Mean-variance analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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