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Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach

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  • Roxana Halbleib
  • Valerie Voev

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for forecasting covariance matrices of financial returns. the model mixes volatility forecasts from a dynamic model of daily realized volatilities estimated with high-frequency data with correlation forecasts based on daily data. This new approach allows for flexible dependence patterns for volatilities and correlations, and can be applied to covariance matrices of large dimensions. The seperate modeling of volatility and correlation forecasts considerably reduces the estimation and measurement error implied by the joint estimation and modeling of covariance matrix dynamics. Our empirical results show that the new mixing approach provides superior forecasts compared to multivariate volatility specifications using single sources of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxana Halbleib & Valerie Voev, 2011. "Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/73640
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    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2017. "Large-Scale Portfolio Allocation Under Transaction Costs and Model Uncertainty: Adaptive Mixing of High- and Low-Frequency Information," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168222, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Matteo Luciani & David Veredas, 2012. "A model for vast panels of volatilities," Working Papers 1230, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Roland Weigand, 2014. "Matrix Box-Cox Models for Multivariate Realized Volatility," Working Papers 144, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    4. Matteo Luciani & David Veredas, "undated". "A simple model for vast panels of volatilities," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136239, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. repec:cte:wsrepe:es142416 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bannouh, K. & Martens, M.P.E. & Oomen, R.C.A. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2012. "Realized mixed-frequency factor models for vast dimensional covariance estimation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2012-017-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Veredas, David & Vander Elst, Harry, 2014. "Disentangled jump-robust realized covariances and correlations with non-synchronous prices," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws142416, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Kevin Sheppard, 2014. "Factor High-Frequency Based Volatility (HEAVY) Models," Economics Series Working Papers 710, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Kyj, Lada M. & Malec, Peter, 2011. "The merit of high-frequency data in portfolio allocation," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/24, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Harry-Paul Vander Elst & David Veredas, 2014. "Disentangled Jump-Robust Realized Covariances and Correlations with Non-Synchronous Prices," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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