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Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility

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  • Roxana Chiriac
  • Valeri Voev

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for modelling time series of realized covariance matrices in order to forecast multivariate risks. The approach allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns and guarantees positive definiteness of the resulting forecasts without imposing parameter restrictions. We provide an empirical application of the model, in which we show by means of stochastic dominance tests that the returns from an optimal portfolio based on the model’s forecasts second-order dominate returns of portfolios optimized on the basis of traditional MGARCH models. This result implies that any risk-averse investor, regardless of the type of utility function, would be better-off using our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxana Chiriac & Valeri Voev, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-39
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Fractional integration; Stochastic dominance; Portfolio optimization; Realized covariance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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