A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility
The paper proposes an additive cascade model of volatility components defined over different time periods. This volatility cascade leads to a simple AR-type model in the realized volatility with the feature of considering different volatility components realized over different time horizons and thus termed Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In spite of the simplicity of its structure and the absence of true long-memory properties, simulation results show that the HAR-RV model successfully achieves the purpose of reproducing the main empirical features of financial returns (long memory, fat tails, and self-similarity) in a very tractable and parsimonious way. Moreover, empirical results show remarkably good forecasting performance. Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, Oxford University Press.
Volume (Year): 7 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://jfec.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008.
"Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter,"
Department of Economics University of Siena
534, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2004. "Information flow between volatilities across time scales," MPRA Paper 10355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996.
"Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data,"
96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
- I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, EconWPA, revised 26 Sep 1996.
- Corsi, Fulvio & Kretschmer, Uta & Mittnik, Stefan & Pigorsch, Christian, 2005.
"The volatility of realized volatility,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2005/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada.
- Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006.
"A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model for Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," NBER Working Papers 10117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model For Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2003_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Audrino, Francesco & Corsi, Fulvio, 2010.
"Modeling tick-by-tick realized correlations,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2372-2382, November.
- Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008. "Modeling Tick-by-Tick Realized Correlations," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008.
"A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
- Michael McAller & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2007. "A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Textos para discussão 544, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004.
"Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007.
"A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November.
- Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005.
"Multifrequency News and Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mancini, Loriano, 2008. "Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 17-33, November.
- Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006.
"Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-230, March.
- U. A. Muller & M. M. Dacorogna & R. D. Dave & O. V. Pictet & R. B. Olsen & J.R. Ward, . "Fractals and Intrinsic Time - a Challenge to Econometricians," Working Papers 1993-08-16, Olsen and Associates.
- Laurent E. Calvet, 2004. "How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 49-83.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:7:y:2009:i:2:p:174-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.