Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?
Our objective is volatility forecasting, which is core to many risk management problems. We provide theoretical explanations for (i) the empirical stylized fact recognized at least since Taylor (1986) and Ding, Granger, and Engle (1993) that absolute returns show more persistence than squared returns and (ii) the empirical finding reported in recent work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2006) showing that realized absolute values outperform square return-based volatility measures in predicting future increments in quadratic variation. We start from a continuous time stochastic volatility model for asset returns suggested by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) and study the persistence and linear regression properties of various volatility-related processes either observed directly or with sampling error. We also allow for jumps in the asset return processes and investigate their impact on persistence and linear regression. Extensive empirical results complement the theoretical analysis. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://jfec.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:5:y:2007:i:1:p:31-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.