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Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility

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  • Torben G. Andersen

    () (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University and NBER)

  • Tim Bollerslev

    () (Department of Economics, Duke University and NBER)

  • Francis X. Diebold

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

Abstract

A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting performance through the use of realized volatilities constructed from high frequency returns coupled with relatively simple reduced-form time series modeling procedures. Building on recent theoretical results from Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2003c,d) for related bi-power variation measures involving the sum of high-frequency absolute returns, the present paper provides a practical framework for non-parametrically measuring the jump component in realized volatility measurements. Exploiting these ideas for a decade of high-frequency five-minute returns for the DM/$ exchange rate, the S&P500 market index, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, we find the jump component of the price process to be distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path component. Explicitly including the jump measure as an additional explanatory variable in an easy-to implement reduced form model for realized volatility results in highly significant jump coefficient estimates at the daily, weekly and quarterly forecast horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:03-025
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    Cited by:

    1. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Frederiksen, Per, 2008. "Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-286, March.
    2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," Economics Papers 2005-W16, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Alexander Mende, 2006. "09/11 on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 213-222.
    4. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J., 2007. "Multifrequency news and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 178-212, October.
    5. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Limit Theorems For Bipower Variation In Financial Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 677-719, August.
    6. Audrino, Francesco & Camponovo, Lorenzo & Roth, Constantin, 2015. "Testing the lag structure of assets’ realized volatility dynamics," Economics Working Paper Series 1501, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    7. Taamouti, Abderrahim & Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René, 2008. "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics we084422, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    8. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.
    9. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    10. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 2007. "Forecasting the Volatility of Australian Stock Returns: Do Common Factors Help?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 76-90, January.
    11. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2010. "Explaining asymmetric volatility around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 938-956, December.
    12. Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2016. "The Relationship between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 929-950, June.
    13. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    14. Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
    15. Carla Ysusi, 2006. "Detecting Jumps in High-Frequency Financial Series Using Multipower Variation," Working Papers 2006-10, Banco de México.
    16. Jeremy Large, 2005. "Estimating quadratic variation when quoted prices jump by a constant increment," Economics Papers 2005-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. Çelik, Sibel & Ergin, Hüseyin, 2014. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: Evidence from stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 176-190.
    18. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    19. Jian Chen & Xiaoquan Liu, 2010. "The model-free measures and the volatility spread," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(18), pages 1829-1833.
    20. Carla Ysusi, 2006. "Estimating Integrated Volatility Using Absolute High-Frequency Returns," Working Papers 2006-13, Banco de México.

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    Keywords

    Continuous-time methods; jumps; quadratic variation; realized volatility; bi-power variation; high-frequency data; volatility forecasting; HAR-RV model;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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