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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability

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  • Sucarrat, Genaro

Abstract

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternative approach is needed. The contribution of this study is twofold. First, the finite sample properties of operational and practical procedures for the forecast evaluation of explanatory discrete time models of financial variability are studied. Second, based on the simulation results a simple but general framework is proposed and illustrated. The illustration provides an example of where an explanatory model outperforms realised volatility ex post.

Suggested Citation

  • Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7594
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2009-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    2. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2020. "Identification of Volatility Proxies as Expectations of Squared Financial Return," MPRA Paper 101953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alvaro Escribano & Genaro Sucarrat, 2011. "Automated model selection in finance: General-to-speci c modelling of the mean and volatility speci cations," Working Papers 2011-09, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    4. Genaro Sucarrat & Alvaro Escribano, 2012. "Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modelling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 716-735, October.
    5. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Automated financial multi-path GETS modelling," UC3M Working papers. Economics we093620, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2021. "Identification of volatility proxies as expectations of squared financial returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1677-1690.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial variability; financial volatility; forecasting; explanatory modelling; exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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