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Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility

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  • Jeff Fleming
  • Chris Kirby

Abstract

We develop a new class of regime-switching volatility models that are characterized by high-dimensional state spaces, parsimonious transition matrices, and ARMA dynamics for the log volatility process. This combination of features is achieved by assuming that we can decompose the Markov chain that describes regime dynamics into a number of two-state component chains that evolve independently through time. Using daily data for S&P 500 index and IBM shares, we show that our component-driven regime-switching (CDRS) models are capable of outperforming GARCH, component GARCH, regime-switching GARCH, and Markov-switching multifractal models in forecasting realized variances out of sample. Interestingly, we find that CDRS models with simple AR(1) dynamics perform well across the board. Copyright The Author, 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:11:y:2013:i:2:p:263-301
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbs023
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    Cited by:

    1. Cordis, Adriana S. & Kirby, Chris, 2014. "Discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 160-178.
    2. Ying Wang & Hoi Ying Wong, 2017. "VIX Forecast Under Different Volatility Specifications," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(2), pages 131-148, June.
    3. Augustyniak, Maciej & Dufays, Arnaud, 2018. "Modeling macroeconomic series with regime-switching models characterized by a high-dimensional state space," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 122-126.
    4. AUGUSTYNIAK, Maciej & BAUWENS, Luc & DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2016. "A New Approach to Volatility Modeling : The High-Dimensional Markov Model," CORE Discussion Papers 2016042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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