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The frequency of regime switching in financial market volatility

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  • BenSaïda, Ahmed

Abstract

The mechanism of risk responses to market shocks is considered as stagnant in recent financial literature, whether during normal or stress periods. Since the returns are heteroskedastic, a little consideration was given to volatility structural breaks and diverse states. In this study, we conduct extensive simulations to prove that the switching regime GARCH model, under the highly flexible skewed generalized t (SGT) distribution, is remarkably efficient in detecting different volatility states. Next, we examine the switching regime in the S&P 500 volatility for weekly, daily, 10-minute and 1-minute returns. Results show that the volatility switches regimes frequently, and differences between the distributions of the high and low volatility states become more accentuated as the frequency increases. Moreover, the SGT is highly preferable to the usually employed skewed t distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2015. "The frequency of regime switching in financial market volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 63-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:63-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.03.005
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    1. Mateusz Buczynski & Marcin Chlebus, 2024. "GARCHNet: Value-at-Risk Forecasting with GARCH Models Based on Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1949-1979, May.
    2. BenSaïda, Ahmed & Slim, Skander, 2016. "Highly flexible distributions to fit multiple frequency financial returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 203-213.
    3. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    4. Bucci, Andrea & Ciciretti, Vito, 2022. "Market regime detection via realized covariances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2018. "The contagion effect in European sovereign debt markets: A regime-switching vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 153-165.
    6. Salami, Monsurat Ayojimi & Tanrıvermiş, Harun & Tanrıvermiş, Yesim, 2024. "Influence of Ukraine invasion by Russia on Turkish markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    7. Mateusz Buczyński & Marcin Chlebus, 2021. "GARCHNet - Value-at-Risk forecasting with novel approach to GARCH models based on neural networks," Working Papers 2021-08, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Nagaraj Naik & Biju R. Mohan, 2021. "Stock Price Volatility Estimation Using Regime Switching Technique-Empirical Study on the Indian Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-18, July.
    9. Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
    10. Ahmed BenSaïda & Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Skander Slim, 2018. "Value‐at‐risk under market shifts through highly flexible models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 790-804, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Risk response; Simulation; Skewed generalized t; Switching regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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