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Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors

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  • Liu, Xinyi
  • Margaritis, Dimitris
  • Wang, Peiming

Abstract

This paper proposes a two-state Markov-switching model for stock market returns in which the state-dependent expected returns, their variance and associated regime-switching dynamics are allowed to respond to market information. More specifically, we apply this model to examine the explanatory and predictive power of price range and trading volume for return volatility. Our findings indicate that a negative relation between equity market returns and volatility prevails even after having controlled for the time-varying determinants of conditional volatility within each regime. We also find an asymmetry in the effect of price range on intra- and inter-regime return volatility. While price range has a stronger effect in the high volatility state, it appears to significantly affect only the transition probabilities when the stock market is in the low volatility state but not in the high volatility state. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with the ‘rebound’ model of asset returns proposed by Samuelson (1991), suggesting that long-horizon investors are expected to invest more in risky assets than short-horizon investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xinyi & Margaritis, Dimitris & Wang, Peiming, 2012. "Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-496.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:483-496
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.04.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
    2. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2015. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4408-4422, September.
    3. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    4. Miao, Daniel Wei-Chung & Wu, Chun-Chou & Su, Yi-Kai, 2013. "Regime-switching in volatility and correlation structure using range-based models with Markov-switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-93.
    5. Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O’Connor, 2013. "Do bubbles occur in the gold price? An investigation of gold lease rates and Markov Switching models," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(3), pages 53-63, September.
    6. José Da Fonseca & Peiming Wang, 2016. "A joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap, volatility and stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1767-1784, April.
    7. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2016. "Institutional investment, equity volume and volatility spillover: Causalities and asymmetries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Li, Hong, 2013. "Integration versus segmentation in China's stock market: An analysis of time-varying beta risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-105.
    9. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2015. "The frequency of regime switching in financial market volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 63-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; Mixture of normals; Price range; Trading volume; Volatility clustering;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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