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Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?

  • Chang-Jin Kim
  • James C. Morley
  • Charles Nelson

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Paper provided by University of Washington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0011.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:0011
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  1. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  6. Kim, Myung Jig & Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 515-28, May.
  7. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  9. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data II: Autoregression tests based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-396, October.
  10. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
  11. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  12. Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
  13. McQueen, Grant, 1992. "Long-Horizon Mean-Reverting Stock Prices Revisited," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 1-18, March.
  14. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C & Nelson, Charles R, 2004. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 339-60, June.
  15. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
  16. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  17. Matthew Richardson & James H. Stock, 1990. "Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  19. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  21. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
  22. Richardson, Matthew P & Smith, Tom, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Testing for Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 371-99, July.
  23. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  25. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  26. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1991. " Seasonality in Stock Price Mean Reversion: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1427-44, September.
  27. Schwert, G.W., 1988. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises And Stock Volatility," Papers 88-06, Rochester, Business - General.
  28. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  29. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
  30. Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
  31. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
  32. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
  33. William Schwert, G., 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility : Reply to Shiller," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 133-137, January.
  34. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  35. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, June.
  36. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  37. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  38. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-53, July.
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