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Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century

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  • L. Spierdijk
  • J.A. Bikker
  • P. van den Hoek

Abstract

This paper analyzes mean reversion in international stock markets during the period 1900-2008, using annual data. Our panel of stock indexes in seventeen developed countries, covering a time span of more than a century, allows us to analyze in detail the dynamics of the mean-reversion process. In the period 1900-2008 it takes stock prices about 13.8 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean reversion over time. The highest mean reversion speed is found for the period including the Great Depression and the start of World War II. Furthermore, the early years of the Cold War and the period covering the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Energy Crisis of 1979 and Black Monday in 1987 are also characterized by relatively fast mean reversion. Overall, we document half-lives ranging from a minimum of 2.1 years to a maximum of 23.8 years. In a substantial number of time periods no significant mean reversion is found at all, which underlines the fact that the choice of data sample contributes substantially to the evidence in favor of mean reversion. Our results suggest that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty, caused by major economic and political events.

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  • L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker & P. van den Hoek, 2010. "Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century," Working Papers 10-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1007
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    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Kim, Jintae, 2018. "London calling: Nonlinear mean reversion across national stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 265-277.
    3. Giovanni Barone Adesi & Eckhard Platen & Carlo Sala, 2020. "On Using Equities to Produce Pension Payouts," Research Paper Series 413, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," Working Papers 12-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
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    7. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Raza, Muhammad Wajid, 2020. "The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 177-199.
    8. Ivanov, Ivan & Kabaivanov, Stanimir & Bogdanova, Boryana, 2016. "Stock market recovery from the 2008 financial crisis: The differences across Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 360-374.
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    10. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "Measuring the speed of convergence of stock prices: A nonparametric and nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 227-241.
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    12. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Maydybura, Alina, 2020. "Where have the profits gone? Market efficiency and the disappearing equity anomalies in country and industry returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Bruzda, Joanna, 2017. "Real and complex wavelets in asset classification: An application to the US stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 115-125.
    14. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    15. Anna Kaliciak & Radoslaw Kurach & Walid Merouani, 2016. "Who is Eager to Save for Retirement – the Cross-Country Evidence," LWS Working papers 23, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    16. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
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    19. Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros & Pradat Yannick, 2016. "Non gaussian returns: which impact on default options retirement plans? [Distribution non gaussienne des rendements : quel impact sur les options par défaut des plans d'épargne retraite ?]," Working Papers hal-03003588, HAL.
    20. Buckley, Winston S. & Long, Hongwei, 2015. "A discontinuous mispricing model under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 944-955.
    21. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," Post-Print hal-02059799, HAL.
    22. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, March.
    23. Antoine Lejay & Paolo Pigato, 2019. "A Threshold Model For Local Volatility: Evidence Of Leverage And Mean Reversion Effects On Historical Data," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-24, June.
    24. Zaremba, Adam, 2019. "Price range and the cross-section of expected country and industry returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 174-189.
    25. A. Sensoy & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mean reversion; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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