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Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

Based on multivariate Markov-switching models, this paper presents new results on the interactions between global imbalances, credit spreads, housing markets, macroeconomic variables, commodities and equities during Q1-1987/Q1-2011. We show that rising global imbalances and the uncontrolled development of the US mortgage and housing markets have been deeply destabilizing the economy, with various shocks impacting subsequently equity markets and macroeconomic variables. But we also uncover, surprisingly, that the cross-market linkages with the commodity markets are strong. Finally, we identify that the US housing market lies at the epicenter of the crisis through its multiple and highly significant interactions with the other variables in the system (including the global imbalances). Sub-samples and alternative time series estimates are provided to check the statistical congruency of the various models.

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  • Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:943-973
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; Cross-market linkages; Financial crisis; Multivariate Markov-switching model; Credit spread; Housing market; Macroeconomy; Commodities; Equities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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