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Leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks

  • Michael B. Devereux

Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent portfolio holdings among leverage-constrained financial institutions. In the absence of leverage constraints, international portfolio diversification has no implications for macroeconomic comovements. When leverage constraints bind, however, the presence of diversified portfolios in combination with these constraints introduces a powerful financial transmission channel, which results in a high correlation among macroeconomic aggregates during business cycle downturns, quite independent of the size of international trade linkages. Conversely, the paper shows that, conditional on leverage constraints binding, international financial integration through equity markets reverses the sign of the international comovement of shocks, leading comovement to switch from negative to positive.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 45.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:45
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  1. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," Post-Print hal-00612588, HAL.
  2. repec:bla:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:4:p:1215-1256 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  4. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," Working Papers 01-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
  6. Luca Dedola & Giovanni Lombardo, 2012. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 319-359, 04.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2008. "Country portfolios in open economy macro models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  9. Marianne Baxter & Urban J. Jermann, 1995. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse Than You Think," NBER Working Papers 5019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
  11. Faia, Ester, 2007. "Finance and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1018-1034, May.
  12. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Country Portfolio Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2004. "Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  15. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  16. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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