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Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

Many economic time series exhibit dramatic breaks associated with events such as economic recessions, financial panics, and currency crises. Such changes in regime may arise from tipping points or other nonlinear dynamics and are core to some of the most important questions in macroeconomics. This paper surveys the literature for studying regime changes and summarizes available methods. Section 1 introduces some of the basic tools for analyzing such phenomena, using for illustration the move of an economy into and out of recession. Section 2 focuses on empirical methods, providing a detailed overview of econometric analysis of time series that are subject to changes in regime. Section 3 discusses theoretical treatment of macroeconomic models with changes in regime and reviews applications in a number of areas of macroeconomics. Some brief concluding recommendations for applied researchers are offered in Section 4.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21863
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    3. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    4. Brave, Scott A. & Lopez, Jose A., 2017. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," Working Paper Series 2017-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    6. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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