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Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE model

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  • Andrew T. Foerster
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

The macroeconomic environment often changes repeatedly over time, and often in a recurring manner. For example, the economy may switch between periods of high and low growth, or monetary policy may switch between periods of strong versus weak responses to inflation. An important question for economists is how to model the presence of these switches, and to capture how expectations about switches in the future may impact economic behavior. ; This paper develops a methodology for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in the presence of switching environments. The approach allows for features of the economy to change over time, and for consumers, firms, or policymakers to internalize the expectations of future changes on their behavior. ; the procedure. In one example, the economy switches between a high and low growth periods. In the second example, the monetary authority changes how strongly it responds to deviations of inflation from its inflation target. Both examples highlight that expectations of future changes impact behavior in important ways.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew T. Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE model," Research Working Paper RWP 13-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp13-01
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    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/reswkpap/pdf/rwp13-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2010. "Fortune or virtue: time-variant volatilities versus parameter drifting," Working Papers 10-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 2010.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    2. Serguei Maliar & John Taylor & Lilia Maliar, 2016. "The Impact of Alternative Transitions to Normalized Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2015. "A Tractable Framework for Analyzing a Class of Nonstationary Markov Models," Economics Working Papers 15105, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," Working Paper Series WP-2016-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Ajevskis Viktors, 2017. "Semi-global solutions to DSGE models: perturbation around a deterministic path," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-28, April.
    6. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    7. Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.

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