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Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

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  • Benigno, Gianluca
  • Foerster, Andrew
  • Otrok, Christopher
  • Rebucci, Alessandro

Abstract

We estimate a workhorse DSGE model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new specification of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between being the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic function of the leverage level and the constraint multiplier. This specification maps into an endogenous regime-switching model. Second, we develop a general perturbation method for the solution of such a model. Third, we estimate the model with Bayesian methods to fit Mexico's business cycle and financial crisis history since 1981. The estimated model fits the data well, identifying three crisis episodes of varying duration and intensity: the Debt, Tequila, and Global Financial Crises. The crisis episodes generated by the estimated model display sluggish and long-lasting build-up and stagnation phases driven by cocktails of shocks. Different sets of shocks explain different variables over the business cycle and the three historical episodes of sudden stops identified.

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  • Benigno, Gianluca & Foerster, Andrew & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2020. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 14545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14545
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    3. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    4. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Identification of Sign-Dependency of Impulse Responses," Working Papers 1907, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    5. Damián Pierri & Kevin Reffett, 2021. "Memory, Multiple Equilibria and Emerging Market Crises," Working Papers 154, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2021.
    6. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 882, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    9. Julien Albertini & Stéphane Moyen, 2020. "A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers 2035, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    10. Grégory LEVIEUGE & Jose David GARCIA REVELO, 2020. "When could macroprudential and monetary policies be in conflict?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2749, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    12. Tambakis, D., 2020. "A Markov-Chain Measure of Systemic Banking Crisis Frequency," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2083, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; business cycles; Endogenous Regime-Switching; financial crises; Mexico; occasionally binding constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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