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Estimating Fiscal Limits: The Case Of Greece

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  • Huixin Bi
  • Nora Traum

Abstract

This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, the stochastic ‘fiscal limit’ and sovereign default. Using the particle filter to perform likelihood‐based inference, we estimate the full nonlinear model with post‐EMU data until 2010:Q4. We find that (i) the probability of default on Greek debt was in the range of 5–10% in 2010:Q4 and (ii) the 2011 surge in the Greek real interest rate is within model forecast bands. The results suggest that a nonlinear rational expectations environment can account for the Greek interest rate path. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixin Bi & Nora Traum, 2014. "Estimating Fiscal Limits: The Case Of Greece," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1053-1072, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:7:p:1053-1072
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2401
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine Ma & Chung Tran, 2016. "Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-642, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma point filters for dynamic nonlinear regime switching models," Working Paper 2015/10, Norges Bank.
    5. Matsuoka, Hideaki, 2015. "Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-30.
    6. Kaufmann, Christoph & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2020. "Macroeconomic stabilisation properties of a euro area unemployment insurance scheme," Working Paper Series 2428, European Central Bank.
    7. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 119-130.
    8. Andrew Binning & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2019. "Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model," Working Papers No 09/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Ferraro, Domenico & Peretto, Pietro F., 2020. "Innovation-led growth in a time of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Richard E. Wagner, 2015. "Welfare Economics and Second-Best Theory: Filling Imaginary Economic Boxes," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 35(1), pages 133-146, Winter.
    11. Nicoletta Batini & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation; The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 16/104, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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