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Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach

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  • Bi, Huixin
  • Shen, Wenyi
  • Yang, Shu-Chun S.

Abstract

This paper studies fiscal limits in developing countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Distributions of fiscal limits, which measure a government’s capacity to service its debt, are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in explaining the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. Large devaluation of real exchange rates can significantly reduce a government’s capacity to service its debt and lower the fiscal limits. Temporary disturbances, therefore, can shift the distribution of fiscal limits and suddenly change perceptions about fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 119-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:49:y:2016:i:c:p:119-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Kuan-Jen & Chu, Angus C. & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2018. "Home production and small open economy business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 110-135.
    2. Hürtgen, Patrick, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability duringthe COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 35/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Wenyi Shen, 2020. "Debt sustainability and fiscal space in a heterogeneous Monetary Union: normal times vs the zero lower bound," Working Papers 2001, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez, Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann, Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, Martha López & Juan C. Mend, 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    5. Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Chris Papageorgiou, 2019. "Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries," IMF Working Papers 19/217, International Monetary Fund.
    6. López, José Joaquín, 2017. "A quantitative theory of tax evasion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 107-126.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal limits; External debt; Developing countries; DSGE models;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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