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Estimating Sovereign Default Risk

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  • Huixin Bi
  • Nora Traum

Abstract

This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the sovereign default probability for Greece and Italy in the post-EMU period. We build a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, sovereign default risk, and a "fiscal limit," which measures the maximum level of debt the government is willing to finance. We estimate the full nonlinear model using likelihood inference methods. Although we find that Greece historically had a lower default probability than Italy for a given debt level, our estimates suggest that the Italian government is more willing to service debt than the Greek government.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixin Bi & Nora Traum, 2012. "Estimating Sovereign Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 161-166, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:161-66
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.102.3.161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    2. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 119-130.
    2. Ari, Anil, 2018. "Gambling traps," Working Paper Series 2217, European Central Bank.
    3. Andrew Binning & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2019. "Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model," Working Papers No 09/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Sokolova, A., 2014. "Sovereign Risk and Monetary Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 56-82.
    5. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Kobielarz, Michal L. & Uras, Rasim Burak, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Bail-Outs and Contagion in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 10459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Matsuoka, Hideaki, 2015. "Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-30.
    8. Sokolova, Anna, 2015. "Fiscal limits and monetary policy: default vs. inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 189-198.
    9. Kazuki Hiraga, 2012. "Measuring the Tax Revenue Elasticity to Output in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-010, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    10. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    11. Chernov, Mikhail & Schmid, Lukas & Schneider, Andres, 2016. "A Macrofinance View of U.S. Sovereign CDS Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 11576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Sören Radde & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Wei Cui, 2015. "Government Bond Liquidity and Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Zuzana Mucka, 2015. "Is the Maastricht debt limit safe enough for Slovakia?," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    14. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki & Müller, Georg, 2020. "Fiscal multipliers with financial fragmentation risk and interactions with monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2418, European Central Bank.
    16. Zuzana Mucka, 2019. "The mirror does not lie: Endogenous fiscal limits for Slovakia," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2019, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    17. Hürtgen, Patrick & Rühmkorf, Ronald, 2014. "Sovereign default risk and state-dependent twin deficits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 357-382.

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