Estimating Sovereign Default Risk
This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the sovereign default probability for Greece and Italy in the post-EMU period. We build a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, sovereign default risk, and a "fiscal limit," which measures the maximum level of debt the government is willing to finance. We estimate the full nonlinear model using likelihood inference methods. Although we find that Greece historically had a lower default probability than Italy for a given debt level, our estimates suggest that the Italian government is more willing to service debt than the Greek government.
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Volume (Year): 102 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bi, Huixin, 2012.
"Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
- Huixin Bi, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," Staff Working Papers 11-10, Bank of Canada.
- Huixin Bi, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," Caepr Working Papers 2010-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
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