IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sovereign Default Risk in a Monetary Union

  • Betty C. Daniel

    ()

    (University at Albany)

  • Christos Shiamptanis

    ()

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

A country entering a monetary union gives up the right to determine its own monetary policy, thereby relinquishing monetary instruments to assure fiscal solvency. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical model to address fiscal solvency risk. We show that when debt is subject to an upper bound and policy faces stochastic shocks, a government can find itself in a position for which the expected present value of future surpluses under current policy is less than debt. Agents refuse to lend into such a position, and the sudden stop of capital flows defines a fiscal solvency crisis. We model the dynamics of a fiscal solvency crisis in a monetary union under the assumption that the fiscal authority will respond to the crisis using default to reduce the value of debt. We simulate the model to estimate fiscal solvency risk in the European Monetary Union. We find that countries adhering to the Stability and Growth Pack limits are perfectly safe, while countries like Greece and Italy, whose debt relative to GDP has strayed far above the 60 percent limit, are not.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.centralbank.gov.cy/media/pdf/NPWPE_No3_052010.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Central Bank of Cyprus in its series Working Papers with number 2010-3.

as
in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2010-3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.centralbank.gov.cy/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=1

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf & Dan Peled, 2008. "Regional debt in monetary unions : is it inflationary ?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne v08070, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Betty C. Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," International Finance Discussion Papers 961, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Betty Daniel, 2000. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0535, Econometric Society.
  6. Arellano, Cristina & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "Dollarization and Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 6116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Evan Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt; A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
  9. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 323-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 519-546.
  13. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
  15. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  16. Daniel, Betty C., 2001. "The fiscal theory of the price level in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 293-308, October.
  17. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  18. Betty C. Daniel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Crises and Fiscal Solvency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1109-1135, 09.
  19. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Research Working Paper RWP 10-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  20. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-42, August.
  21. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  22. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  23. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00344475 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2010-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria Nicolaidou)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.