A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data
In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, 22453-900 Rio de Janeiro, RJ|
Phone: 021 35271078
Fax: 021 35271084
Web page: http://www.econ.puc-rio.br
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2002. "Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions," Textos para discussão 464, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998.
"Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
- Eliane A. Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997. "Capital Flows to Brazil; The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 97/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2004. "Debt intolerance: Executive summary," MPRA Paper 13398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002.
"Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
- Bevilaqua, Alfonso S. & Garcia, Marcio G. P., 2000. "Debt management in Brazil : evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2402, The World Bank.
- Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Textos para discussão 408, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Francesco Giavazzi & Alessandro Missale, "undated".
"How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations,"
174, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Missale, Alessandro & Giavazzi, Francesco & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. " How Is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Giavazzi, Francesco & Missale, Alessandro, 2001. "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Didier, 2000. "Very high interest rates and the cousin risks: Brazil during the Real Plan," Textos para discussão 441, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Márcio gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcus Vinicius Ferrero Valpassos, 1998. "Capital flows, capital controls and currency crisis: the case of Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussão 389, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.