IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/1222.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uma Análise de Credibilidade na Política Fiscal Brasileira

Author

Listed:
  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires

Abstract

The paper aims to study fiscal data of primary surplus expectation and debt expectation. The results showed gains of credibility in the Brazilian fiscal policy conduct because financial markets expecting less debt for near future. In addition, expectations that debt will grow up raises expectations that primary surplus will grow up too.

Suggested Citation

  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires, 2006. "Uma Análise de Credibilidade na Política Fiscal Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1222, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1222
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1222.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    3. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    4. Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002. "Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
    5. Issler, Joao Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2000. "Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-1992," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 131-147, June.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    7. Rocha, Fabiana, 1997. "Long-Run Limits on the Brazilian Government Debt," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 51(4), October.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    9. Eisner, Robert, 1989. "Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 73-93, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Cysne, Rubens Penha & Campos, Eduardo Lima, 2019. "Sustainability of the Brazilian public pebt an analysis using multicointegration," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 805, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 313-335, June.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, 2005. "Dívida Pública Brasileira, Default E A "Nova Equivalência Ricardiana": Um Exercício Cliométrico Do Brasil - Império À Época Atual," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 050, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    9. Cleiton Silva de Jesus & Thiago Rios Lopes & Silvana Dantas Guimarães, 2017. "Monetary policy credibility and inflation in an emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 778-789.
    10. Viviane Luporini, 2014. "Sustainability Of Brazilian Fiscalpolicy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 064, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    14. Asmaa Ezzat & Manal Emira, 2025. "Do institutions matter in the fiscal reaction function? The case of Egypt," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. GROSU Alexandra Claudia, 2025. "Public Debt Sustainability In Post-2000 Eu Member States With Euro Adoption: A Penalized Spline Regression Approach," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 77(1), pages 69-84, May.
    17. Mauricio Drelichman & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Debt Sustainability in Historical Perspective: The Role of Fiscal Repression," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 657-667, 04-05.
    18. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 157-193.
    19. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2024. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 1020-1054.
    21. Habib, Michel & Collard, Fabrice & Rochet, Jean Charles, 2016. "The Reluctant Defaulter: A Tale of High Government Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 11299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Schiavinatto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.