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The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • Norbert Fiess
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to worldwide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    2. Gerdie Everaert & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2014. "Fiscal policy and TFP in the OECD : Measuring direct and indirect effects," Working Paper Research 274, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
    4. Escobari Diego & Mollick André Varella, 2013. "Output growth and unexpected government expenditures," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-33.
    5. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, pages 85-97.
    6. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," ifo Working Paper Series 141, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, pages 653-702.
    8. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2015. "Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 975-1005, August.
    9. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "On The Role Of Public Policies And Wage Formation For Private Investment In R&D: A Long-Run Panel Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/911, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Gerdie Everaert & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "Fiscal policy and TFP in the OECD: measuring direct and indirect effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 605-640.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Sustainability.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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