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Empirische Studien zu Staatsverschuldung und fiskalischen Transferzahlungen

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  • Markus Reischmann

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie behandelt in fünf eigenständigen Kapiteln Themen zur Staatsverschuldung und zu Finanztransferzahlungen Nach einer Einführung in die Thematik wird in Kapitel 2 untersucht, ob in den amerikanischen Bundesstaaten und in den deutschen Bundesländern nachhaltige Fiskalpolitiken verfolgt wurden. Zur Beurteilung der fiskalischen Nachhaltigkeit spielt die Berücksichtigung von Transferzahlungen eine entscheidende Rolle. Wird der Primärsaldo ohne Transferzahlungen betrachtet, deuten die Ergebnisse nicht darauf hin, dass sich die Regierungen in ihrer Fiskalpolitik nachhaltig verhalten haben. Kapitel 3 untersucht, ob das Wahlverhalten der Gemeinden bei Landtagswahlen in einem deutschen Bundesland die Verteilung von diskretionären Finanzzuweisungen des Landes an die Gemeinden beeinflusst hat. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Gemeinden mit vielen Unterstützern der Landesregierung mehr diskretionäre Zuweisungen erhalten haben. In Kapitel 4 wird untersucht, ob und wann die deutschen Target-Forderungen im Zeitraum zwischen Januar 1999 und März 2014 ein explosives Verhalten aufwiesen. Kapitel 5 untersucht, ob Wahlmotive in OECD-Ländern „kreative Buchführung" der Regierungen beeinflusst haben. Kreative Buchführung wird mit Hilfe der sogenannten „Stock-Flow-Adjustments" – d.h. der Differenz zwischen der Veränderung des Schuldenstandes und dem ausgewiesenen Defizit – gemessen. Regierungen können kreative Buchführung betreiben, um ihre Kreditaufnahme zu verschleiern und Budgetdaten zu schönen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Stock-Flow-Adjustments vor Wahlen angestiegen sind. In Deutschland wurden große Stock-Flow-Adjustments insbesondere durch die Einrichtung von Extrahaushalten verursacht. Kapitel 6 gibt einen Überblick der staatlichen Extrahaushalte in Deutschland und diskutiert, zu welchen Anlässen Extrahaushalte eingerichtet wurden. Außerdem wird betrachtet, inwieweit die neue deutsche Schuldenbremse die Staatsverschuldung in Extrahaushalten berücksichtigt und welche Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten der Bund und die Länder weiterhin zur Umgehung der erlaubten Kreditaufnahme über Extrahaushalte haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirische Studien zu Staatsverschuldung und fiskalischen Transferzahlungen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:63
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    Keywords

    Public debt; fiscal sustainability; institutions; fiscal transfers; intergovernmental; grants; discretionary grants; fiscal equalization; hidden debt; creative accounting; stockflow; adjustments; electoral motives; political business cycles.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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