Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior
Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focussing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The size and power properties of the test under various scenarios are examined in simulations and some recommendations for empirical practice are given. Empirical applications to the Nasdaq and to Australian and New Zealand housing data illustrate these specification issues and reveal their practical importance in testing.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (June 2014), 76(3): 315-333|
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- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
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"Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations from a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1471, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012.
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13-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1843, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
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