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Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office)

  • Jun Yu

    (Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singapore Management University)

  • Lu Jin

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market,including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a bubble in early 2011 in the overall market as well as in the mass segment but not in the luxury segment. This result suggests that the bubble in early 2011 in the Hong Kong real estate market came more strongly from the mass segment under the demand pressure from end-users of small-to-medium sized apartments.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers CoFie-03-2012, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:skb:wpaper:cofie-03-2012
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    File URL: http://skbi.smu.edu.sg/downloads/skbi/CoFiE/Working%20Papers/BubbleDetectionHK05.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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