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The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?

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  • Chang, Kuang Liang
  • Chen, Nan Kuang
  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of housing returns in Singapore. We first extract the movements of Singapore's economic aggregates that are free from foreign (U.S. and rest of the world) factors, and then examine the determinants of its housing returns. We find that both the domestic variables (such as GDP growth rate, volume of international trade, and exchange rate) and U.S. variables (such as the Federal Fund Rate and the External Finance Premium) are important during the boom regime. The bust regime is very different. Directions for future research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?," MPRA Paper 32255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32255
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG & Joe Cho Yiu NG, "undated". "Macro Aspects of Housing," ISER Discussion Paper 1030, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Kuang-Liang Chang & Ming-Hui Yen, 2014. "The magnitude and significance of macroeconomic variables in explaining regional housing fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 828-841.
    3. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    4. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
    5. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    6. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2016. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Resilience of Banks to Property Price Shocks ¡V Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 120-149.
    7. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    8. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:276-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dong Chen & Yanmin Gao & Mayank Kaul & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "The Role of Sponsors and External Management on the Capital Structure of Asian-Pacific REITs: The Case of Australia, Japan, and Singapore," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 197-221.
    10. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    11. Matthew S. Yiu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach," Working Papers 012012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    13. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
    14. Anupam Nanda & Jia-Huey Yeh, 2016. "International Transmission Mechanisms and Contagion in Housing Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 1005-1024, July.
    15. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price; international transmission mechanism; regime-switching; regime-dependent response; two-stage procedure.;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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