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In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns

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  • Chang, Kuang-Liang
  • Chen, Nan-Kuang
  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

Abstract

We examine how the fluctuations in financial and housing markets in U.S. affect the asset returns and GDP in Hong Kong. In contrast to the results from linear specifications, which concludes that the U.S. and Hong Kong are virtually delinked in terms of the asset markets, our regime-switching models indicate that the unexpected shock of US stock returns, followed by the TED spread, has the most significant effect on HK asset returns and GDP, typically in the regime with high return and low volatility. For the in-sample one-step-ahead forecasting, US Term spread stands out to be the best predictor.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:121
    Note: Published as: Chang, Kuang-Liang, Nan-Kuang Chen and Charles Ka Yui Leung (2013), "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review 18 (1): 1-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2013. "Financial Crisis and the Co-movements of Housing Sub-markets: Do relationships change after a crisis?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 68-118.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu, 2017. "Effects of capital flow on the equity and housing markets in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 332-349, August.
    3. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2016. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Resilience of Banks to Property Price Shocks ¡V Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 120-149.
    4. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    5. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:273-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Matthew S. Yiu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach," Working Papers 012012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    8. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:312-331 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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