IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/012017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Capital Flow on the Equity and Housing Markets in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Kenneth K. Chow

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

The revival of strong capital flows to emerging economies in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 has rekindled the debate on the adverse effects of excessive capital inflows. We study the effects of official and illicit capital flows on Hong Kong, which is a small and open economy with minimal restrictions on cross-border fund movements. To illustrate the effects of different types of capital flows, we study official and illicit flows on Hong Kong¡¯s equity and residential housing markets. It is found that the official and illicit capital flow measures reflect different facets of flow movements and exhibit differential effects on the equity and residential housing markets. The results highlight the complexity of managing capital flows, and the relevance of policies targeting specific sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu, 2017. "Effects of Capital Flow on the Equity and Housing Markets in Hong Kong," Working Papers 012017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/455/wp201701.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
    2. Maria Socorro Gochoco- Bautista & Changyong Rhee, 2016. "Capital controls: a pragmatic proposal," Chapters, in: Dongsoo Kang & Andrew Mason (ed.), Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance, chapter 4, pages 81-103, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Azis, Iwan J. & Yarcia, Damaris Lee, 2014. "How Capital Flows Affect Economy-Wide Vulnerability and Inequality: Flow-of-Funds Analysis of Selected Asian Economies," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 136, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    5. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    8. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
    9. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Dong He & Frank Leung & Philip Ng, 2009. "A Framework for Monitoring Capital Flows in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0916, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    11. Helmut Reisen & Marcelo Soto, 2001. "Which Types of Capital Inflows Foster Developing‐Country Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14.
    12. Charles Leung & Youngman Leong & Siu Wong, 2006. "Housing Price Dispersion: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 357-385, May.
    13. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    15. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Availability, Affordability and Volatility: The Case of the Hong Kong Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 383-428.
    16. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2008. "Capital flows into and out of Hong Kong SAR: implications for monetary and financial stability," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 207-219, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    18. Mr. Salim M. Darbar & Mr. Xiaoyong Wu, 2015. "Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies," IMF Working Papers 2015/123, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Cho, Dongchul & Rhee, Changyong, 2013. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Asia: Capital Flows and Financial Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 350, Asian Development Bank.
    20. Iwan J. Azis & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Managing Elevated Risk," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-981-287-284-5, July.
    21. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    22. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    23. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    24. Oliver D. Babson & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Ramazan Sari & Bradley T. Ewing & Bahadir Aydin, 2007. "Macroeconomic Variables and the Housing Market in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 5-19, October.
    26. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 63-74.
    28. repec:bla:econom:v:61:y:1994:i:242:p:147-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Miss Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Kyuil Chung & Jong-Eun Lee & Elena Loukoianova & Hail Park & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 231-290.
    31. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 63-47.
    32. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2011. "Equity prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 247-276, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Tang, Edward Chi Ho & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2024. "Icing on the cake: Can the Top-Floor Units serve as a status good and an investment simultaneously?," MPRA Paper 121937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Chiu, Alvin, 2019. "Internal and External Determinants of Housing Price Booms in Hong Kong, China," ADBI Working Papers 948, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Marco Hernandez-Vega, 2023. "How relevant are capital flows for house prices in emerging economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(4), pages 965-986, November.
    6. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2017. "Special issue on housing and financial stability: An introduction," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 273-275, August.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Deng, Kuang Kuang & Chau, Kwong Wing, 2021. "Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Edward C. H. Tang, 2021. "Speculate a lot," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 91-109, February.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    5. Peter Montiel, 2014. "Capital Flows: Issues and Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 595-633, July.
    6. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 2018/214, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Cesar Rodrigues van der Laan & André Moreira Cunha & Tiago Wickstrom Alves, 2010. "External financial liberalization and growth in emerging countries: a panel data estimation using a new index (1990-2004)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 307-332, January.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. J. Ramos-Tallada., 2013. "The IMF and management of capital flows: the long road towards a pragmatic approach," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 31, pages 63-85, Autumn.
    12. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    13. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Borkhuu Gotovsuren & Tsenddorj Dorjpurev, 2012. "Financial Contagion and Volatile Capital Flows," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ56.
    14. Fischer, Andreas M. & Greminger, Rafael P. & Grisse, Christian & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    16. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    17. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    18. Mahvash S. Qureshi & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2011. "Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies," NBER Working Papers 17363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2014. "Accounting for emerging market countries' international reserves: Are Pacific Rim countries different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 52-82.
    20. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    21. Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Working Paper Series 1468, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; currency-based measure; illicit flow measure; equity market; real estate market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.