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Equity prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: International evidence

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  • Laopodis, Nikiforos T.

Abstract

We address the dynamic linkages between stock prices and economic fundamentals for the period 1990-2009 for France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US using the rolling-sample cointegration technique and VAR specifications. The empirical analysis is done for the pre- and post-Euro subperiods. In general, the results revealed different sensitivities in the way stock prices reacted to changes in the fundamentals suggesting that stock markets appeared to move independently of them in the long run, especially in the post-Euro period. For example, stock prices were not influenced much by industrial production or interest rates and the impacts of retail trade and crude oil prices on stock prices were smaller in the post- than in the pre-Euro period. An exception is the US's stock market, which showed more sensitivity to crude oil shocks. Finally, when investigating the impact of consumer expectations on stock prices it was revealed that European consumers were more concerned with the general economic and their personal financial situations than with inflationary pressures (except perhaps in Germany) in both subperiods.

Suggested Citation

  • Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2011. "Equity prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 247-276, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:2:p:247-276
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    Cited by:

    1. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2016. "Industry returns, market returns and economic fundamentals: Evidence for the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 89-106.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu, 2017. "Effects of capital flow on the equity and housing markets in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 332-349, August.
    3. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2017. "The world price of sentiment risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 62-82.
    4. Chen, Mei-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2014. "Frontier stock market integration and the global financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 84-103.
    5. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso & Nogueira, David Coito, 2014. "Análise VAR dos índices bolsistas SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI e IBOVESPA
      [Integration of the indexes SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI and IBOVESPA: A VAR approach]
      ," MPRA Paper 62092, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2015.
    6. Monica Billio & Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2015. "Measuring Financial Integration: Lessons from the Correlation," Working Papers 2015:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    8. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    9. Velinov, Anton, 2016. "On the importance of testing structural identification schemes and the potential consequences of incorrectly identified models," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145581, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:140-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence," MPRA Paper 59760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Velinov, Anton & Chen, Wenjuan, 2015. "Do stock prices reflect their fundamentals? New evidence in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Numan Ülkü & Duminda Kuruppuarachchi, 2015. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks: Connection Restored but Delayed," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 613-622, December.
    15. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun & Sarkar, Kabir & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "How do Macroeconomic Changes Impact Islamic and Conventional Equity Prices? Evidence from Developed and Emerging Countries," MPRA Paper 59587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2016. "The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets," Discussion Papers 384, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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